There have been many warnings that climate change could make it more difficult to grow food. But a new tool may allow farmers to glimpse the future and prepare for what lies ahead.
之前我们经常听说气候变化将会导致粮食种植更加困难。 但是最新发明的一种工具将使农民真切的感受未来的气候，并且为之做好准备。
Scientists say climate change may significantly alter growing conditions for most farmers. But that doesn't mean those conditions will be unknown or unexpected. They say there are plenty of examples of how farmers have already adapted to higher temperatures.
科学家表示气候变化将会较大程度的影响多数农民的粮食种植， 但这并不是说我们不能预测气候。 科学家表示目前为止，已经有很多适应高温种植的例子了。
Researchers at the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change have released a report called: Climate Analogues – Finding Tomorrow's Agriculture Today.
国际农业研究咨询组项目研究员在气候变化大会上发表了一份名为《气候类似物-今天找出明日农业的发展之路》的报告。
Dr. Andy Jarvis explains:"Climate analogues are a way of finding the future today. We talk about how climate will change and it's quite an abstract idea to say, well, this place will be two degrees warmer. But these climate analogues are an interesting way of actually seeing what that really feels like. So, you can find the future of a site when temperature is higher, for example, or precipitation is different, and you can find that today somewhere else."
安迪博士说：“气候类似物就是发现未来的一种方法。 我们已经谈到了气候的变化，但是这很抽象，比如说，这里的气温将会上升两度。 但是，气候类似物却能真实的展现气温上升之后的状况。 因此，你就能知道未来这个地方气温升高 或者降水变化之后的情况，也就是说找到与之变化之后相似的地方。”
For example, researchers studied temperature changes projected to occur by 2030， for Shanghai, China, and Los Angeles, California and Durban, South Africa, site of the latest U.N. climate change conference.
比如说，研究员表示预计到2030年， 气候变化将会出现在中国上海，洛杉矶，加州，德班，还有联合国气候变化会议的最近举办地南非。
"If you look for Durban's 2030 climate, you can actually find quite a large area that has very similar climates to what we project for 2030 for Durban in Argentina and Uruguay," said Jarvis.
“如果你想看看到2030年，德班的气候到底怎样。 那你完全可以到阿根廷或者乌拉圭找到和德班2030年气候相似的一个地区。”
That information could be very valuable to farmers.
这对农民来说是一个很有价值的消息。
"Durban, for example, has a lot of very high productivity sugar cane around it. There are also a lot of farmers who depend on maize for subsistence. And so you can go to Argentina and Uruguay where they have established sugar cane and established maize crops and understand really what is it that they're doing that makes them well adapted to their climate. And so that knowledge can then feed into farmers in Durban and help them adapt," he said.
他还说，“比如，德班周围有很多甘蔗产量高的地区， 也有很多农民依靠甘蔗维持生活。 那么，你就可以到同样生产甘蔗和玉米的阿根廷或者乌拉圭看看，就会知道他们是如何巧妙的适应气候的。 因此，德班的农民也能学到知识从而帮助他们适应气候变化。”
The climate analogues say that the soybean growing area near Shanghai will correspond to major soybean areas in the eastern United States, Argentina and South Africa.
气候相似物还表示上海地区种植的大豆将效仿美国东部和阿根廷，南非。
The information can be used to help ensure food security, especially with the population expected to soar in the coming decades.
气候相似物可以用来保证粮食种植， 特别是在未来人口飞增的几十年。
"You have climate change affecting our ability to produce food, but at the same time population [is] on the increase. We just went past 7 billion. Projections for 9 billion in 2050. It's not just population increase, but it's changing consumer patterns, as well. So, the consumption of milk and meat, for example, is on the increase in countries like China. So that's putting tremendous demands on the food system," he said.
“气候的改变会影响粮食生产力，但是同时人口也在增长。 全球人口刚刚突破70亿大关， 预计到2050年将增长到90亿。 这不仅是人口的增长，还意味着消费模式的改变。 比如，在中国，牛奶和肉类的消费量在增长。 那就是说粮食体系的需求量又增加了。”他接着说道。
Jarvis said there are no magic solutions to climate change, so governments need to reach a legally binding agreement on greenhouse gas emissions. However, Jarvis says that's not enough. Farmers need to adapt, especially smallholder farmers.
Jarvis表示对于气候变化没有一蹴而就的解决办法，因此政府就需要制定法律限制温室气体排放。 但是，Jarvis表示制定法律也是远远不够的。 农民还是需要适应气候变化，特别是小田农民。
"Smallholder poor farmers in Africa are those that are most vulnerable. They have [the] least capacity to adapt. Ironically, they're the ones that are least really responsible for climate change, but the ones that are going to be most affected," he said.
“可怜的非洲的小田农民是最脆弱的。 他们适应的能力很弱。 更加讽刺的是，他们对气候变化带来的影响微不足道，却深受气候变化影响。”他感慨道。
Jarvis added that farmers are on the frontlines of climate change, adding he never met one who doubted climate change was taking place.
Jarvis又补充说道农民挡在了气候变化的前线， 他还说他见过的人都相信气候变化这回事。
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