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全球钢铁业低迷 中国或成复苏希望

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 楼主| 发表于 2013-3-1 11:15:54 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式


Signs of a turnaround in the property market and increased infrastructure investment in China could offer a glimmer of hope that the steel market is headed for a recovery, even as market participants suggest the floundering sector may struggle to rebound until 2013 at the earliest.
房地产市场出现回暖迹象以及中国国内基础设施投资增加给人们带来了一丝希望,即钢材市场正在走向复苏。与此同时,市场参与者表示,苦苦挣扎的钢材市场最快也要到2013年才能出现复苏。
Steel prices continue to fall after a lengthy period of weakness during which the price has plunged below the cost of production for many steel producers.
在一段漫长的价格疲软之后,钢材价格继续下跌。在价格疲软期间,钢价已经跌破了很多钢铁生产企业的生产成本。
Salzgitter, Germany's second-largest steelmaker, said earlier this month that the financial crisis had hurt demand from traditional buyers in construction and manufacturing, and that customers have been reluctant to place orders amid the uncertainty of the European sovereign-debt crisis.
德国第二大钢铁生产商萨尔茨吉特(Salzgitter)本月早些时候说,金融危机降低了建筑业和制造业传统买家的需求,此外,由于欧元区主权债务危机所造成的不确定性,客户不愿下订单。
Last month, ArcelorMittal cut its growth forecast for global steel demand to 3.5% to 4% from an earlier estimate of 4% to 4.5%.
上个月,安赛乐米塔尔(ArcelorMittal)将其对全球钢铁需求的增长预期下调到3.5%至4%之间,其此前预期为4%至4.5%。
'The steel market is in dire straits,' said Denny Sabah, a research analyst at trading company Ronly Holdings. 'The summer slowdown in Europe usually leads to a bounce-back in September, but this didn't happen last year and it doesn't look like it's going to happen this year. There is far too much overcapacity in Europe, and profit margins are wafer thin, if producers are making any profit at all.'
贸易商Ronly Holdings的研究分析师萨巴(Denny Sabah)说,钢材市场处于水深火热之中。欧洲夏季放缓的需求通常会在9月出现反弹,但去年没有出现这一情况,看来今年也不太可能会出现。欧洲钢铁产能严重过剩,就算钢铁企业能够实现盈利,其利润率也微乎其微。
The price of hot-rolled coil in Northern Europe is down around 8% over the past six months, at 503 ($623) a ton, according to the Steel Index, an information provider. Hot-rolled coil has a variety of industrial applications, including steel tubes for the automotive sector, shipbuilding and energy pipelines.
钢材价格信息提供商钢铁指数(Steel Index)透露,北欧热轧卷板的价格在过去六个月内下跌了大约8%,至每吨503欧元(约合623美元)。热轧卷板在工业上有多种应用,其中包括汽车制造业、造船以及能源管道用到的钢管。
Steel reinforcing bar, widely used in construction, is trading at 510 a ton in Northern Europe, also down 8% over the past six months.
北欧钢筋价格过去六个月内下跌8%,至每吨510欧元。钢筋被广泛用于建筑业。
'The bigger steel producers are starting to cut prices in a period which is usually seen as strong for construction. So, on balance, [it is] not all boding well,' Sucden Financial broker Rob Montefusco said. 'Ultimately steel goes into products which are bought by the man on the street. Until you can fight unemployment and get people spending again, an improvement, particularly in Europe, seems far off-the next few years may well be a write-off.'
大宗商品交易商Sucden Financial的经纪人蒙特福斯科(Rob Montefusco)说,在当前这样一个通常被视为建筑业钢材需求旺盛的时期,大中型钢铁厂商却开始降价。因此,总的来说,这并不是一个好兆头。钢铁将用于生产普通人所购买的那些产品。除非你能降低失业率,让人们再次开始消费,否则这种低迷的行情想要得到改善看上去可谓遥不可及(欧洲尤其如此)。未来几年很可能需求低迷。
Cash-strapped steel mills have cut production and dramatically lowered prices, but there hasn't yet been a noticeable rebound in demand, steelmakers say.
一些钢铁制造企业说,由于资金严重不足,一些钢铁厂已经减产并大幅降价,但是需求尚未出现明显反弹。
China may offer the only glimmer of hope.
中国可能是唯一的希望了。
In a research note, analysts at Macquarie said there had been a steady improvement in Chinese real estate sales, considered an indicator for construction activity following a downturn. Data released Saturday by China's National Bureau of Statistics also showed that average housing prices in 70 Chinese cities rose in July from June-a second consecutive month of mild gains after eight months of declines.
麦格理证券(Macquarie)的分析师在一份研究报告中说,中国住房销量已经出现了稳步回升。房地产销量被看做是反映建筑业活动的一项指标。中国国家统计局上周六公布的数据也显示,中国70个大中城市的平均房价7月份实现环比上涨,这是房价经历了八个月的下降后连续第二个月缓慢回升。
China has also stepped up approvals for infrastructure projects in a bid to boost economic growth. 'The level of investment in infrastructure is starting to increase after a very slow start to the year and there is plenty of room for further increases if full-year targets for 2012 are to be met,' Macquarie said.
为了刺激经济增长,中国政府还加大了批准基础设施项目的力度。麦格理证券说,在今年年初缓慢起步后,基础设施投资水平开始提高,如果要实现2012全年的目标,基础设施投资还有进一步增长的充足空间。
Still, there remains a glut of steel capacity in northern Asia that will keep prices from rising much in coming months. According to the Steel Index, the price for Chinese exports of hot-rolled coil to Europe or North America has dropped to $553 a ton, down 12% over the past six months and more than 20% from a year earlier.
尽管如此,北亚地区仍然存在钢铁产能过剩的问题,这将阻碍钢铁价格在未来几个月大幅上涨。钢铁价格信息提供商钢铁指数称,中国出口到欧洲和北美的热轧卷板的价格已经降至每吨553美元,过去六个月下降了12%,同比降幅超过20%。
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia expects weak demand to continue. In Europe, in particular, it said demand will likely stagnate as the euro-zone debt crisis keeps a cap on economic activity.
澳洲联邦银行(Commonwealth Bank of Australia)预计,需求不足的状况仍会持续。该银行说,欧洲的情况尤为如此,由于欧元区债务危机对经济活动造成限制,欧洲的需求很可能会陷入停滞。
It also said construction activity in China, particularly from new infrastructure works, will provide some support to prices-although it suggests this is more likely to be in 2013 than later this year.
澳洲联邦银行还说,中国的建筑业活动,尤其是新的基础设施工程将为钢铁价格提供些许支撑,不过这种情况更有可能发生在2013年,而不是今年晚些时候。
'On the other hand,' said Macquarie, 'the recovery in property sales will only last as long as consumer confidence holds. If the manufacturing sector starts shedding jobs and declines in export demand compound current weakness, then it is very possible that buyers will withdraw from the property market, leading to a slowing of construction and another leg down in commodities demand and steel production.'
但麦格理也指出,只有消费者信心不动摇,房地产销售的反弹势头才能保持下去。如果制造业开始裁员,出口需求下降使目前的经济低迷进一步加剧,购买者很可能退出房地产市场,从而导致建筑业活动放缓,大宗商品需求和钢铁生产也会再失去一个支柱。
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