China lowered its economic growth target for this year to 7% on Thursday. That’s half a percentage point lower than the past three years, and a far cry from the heady 2000s when gross domestic product grew by an average 10% a year.
中国政府上周四宣布，今年的经济增长目标为7%，比过去三年下调了0.5个百分点。这远低于本世纪头十年的水平，当时中国经济高歌猛进，年均增幅曾达到10%。
There are two ways to interpret the news. For pessimists, the problems causing China’s economic slowdown don’t look like they’re going away anytime soon: the real estate market is falling deeper into distress; local government debt remains unsustainably high; and China’s model in the 2000s that supported double-digit GDP growth figures— in which Chinese firms produced steel and concrete and sold it to Chinese firms building skyscrapers, roads and tunnels—has run its course. In response to the slowdown, China’s central bank cut interest rates last weekend for the second time in three months.
对这条消息有两种解读方式。对悲观主义者来说，造成中国经济增长放缓的问题看来不会很快消失。房地产市场越发低迷，地方政府债务仍处于难以为继的高水平，本世纪头十年的那种发展模式也已经走到了尽头。当时，中国的钢铁和水泥企业把自己的产品卖给国内建筑公司，后者再用这些原材料修建摩天大楼、公路和隧道。面对经济减速，中国央行上周下调了利率，这已经是央行在三个月内第二次降息。
For optimists, China may be slowing, but man is it still impressive! China is still the fastest-growing of the world’s 20 largest economies (or maybe the second-fastest after India, depending on whose statistics you trust more). And today’s 7% target growth rate translates into $1 trillion in additional activity during the year—a marginal increase that is more than half of India’s total GDP. The optimists also argue a lowered GDP target makes reforms easier to stomach: China’s pollution problems, caused by runaway development over thirty years, have been well documented, and solutions include scaling back the harmful industries. Lower targets should allow China to focus on sustained “quality” growth instead of cheap measures to boost GDP. Gavekal Dragonomics analyst Andrew Batson, who is no Pollyanna, offered the positive view on Thursday: “This is a good thing,” he wrote of the reduced growth target. “[I]t means less political pressure to build up debt and run polluting factories in pursuit of an unrealistic growth target.”
对乐观主义者来说，中国经济增速可能正在下降，但增长水平仍令人侧目。中国仍是全球20大经济体中发展最快的一个（也可能位居第二，仅次于印度，这要看大家相信谁的数据）。7%的增长目标意味着今年中国的经济规模将提高1万亿美元。虽然增速不高，但增长规模仍是印度GDP的一半以上。乐观者还认为，下调GDP增长目标将让改革变得更容易。三十年来，中国经济的飞速发展也引发了严重的污染问题。对此已有大量论述，解决方案之一就是压缩排污工业的规模。降低经济增长目标后，中国应该可以专注于保持高质量发展，而不是简单地提升GDP。经济和市场研究机构龙洲经讯分析师安德鲁•巴特森绝不是盲目乐观者，但他对于中国政府降低经济增长目标持积极态度，安德鲁写道：“这是件好事。这表明政治压力减轻了，不用再通过提高负债和放任工厂污染来追求不切实际的增长目标。”
Do GDP targets even matter? In China, yes. Its economy is still immature in many ways. First, fiscal budgets in the country are based off the target number. Second, monetary policy is aligned with the targets too—the central bank can pump liquidity into the market if the economy isn’t reaching its “full” potential. Third, targets help reassure trading partners that China, unlike its European or U.S. competitors, will focus on predictably meeting economic targets that influence everything from natural resource prices to other emerging market economies.
GDP目标关系重大吗？在中国，是这样没错。中国经济在许多方面仍不成熟。首先，中国政府的财政预算以经济增长目标为基础。其次，货币政策也要遵循这个目标。如果经济没有“充分”发挥潜力，中国央行就可以为市场注入流动性。第三，GDP目标有助于让中国的贸易伙伴安心，因为这表明中国和欧美竞争对手不同，注意力将放在按预期实现经济目标上。这既会影响到自然资源价格，又会影响其他新兴市场经济体。
Do GDP growth targets matter to Chinese people? Less so. Whenever China’s GDP growth is in the headlines, it’s helpful to remember that individual prosperity isn’t driven by growth rates. China’s average per capita income remains very low despite the country’s standing as the world’s number two economy.
GDP目标对中国民众来说重要吗？不那么重要。无论新闻媒体什么时候提到中国的经济增长率，记住一点很有用，那就是增长率并不会提高个人富裕程度。尽管中国是全球第二大经济体，但中国的人均收入水平仍非常低。
Even after standardizing prices in different markets, China’s gross national income per capita of $12,000 is half that of Chile’s and on a par with Peru’s.
就算将不同市场的价格按统一标准进行折算，中国1.2万美元的人均国民总收入也只有智利的一半，和秘鲁相当。
Chinese author Yu Hua wrote several years ago about the issue from the perspective of the average Chinese citizen: “In 2010 China’s revenues are set to hit 8 trillion yuan, and we are told proudly that we are on the verge of becoming the second- richest country in the world, trailing only the United States. But behind these dazzling statistics is another, unsettling one: in terms of per capita income China is still languishing at a low rank, one hundredth in the world. These two economic indicators, which should be similar or in balance, are miles apart in China today.” Gavekal’s Batson points out that a developing country’s growth rate typically falls as incomes rise into developed market levels, which is happening now in China, but there’s a long way to go.
几年前，中国作家余华曾从普通中国人的角度写过这个问题：“2010年中国的财政收入可望达到八万亿元，有关部门骄傲地声称中国将成为世界第二富国，仅次于美国。可是在这个光荣的数据后面，却是一个让人不安的数据，人均年收入仍然在世界的一百位。这两项应该是接近或者平衡的经济指标，在今天的中国竟然差距如此巨大。” 龙洲经讯分析师巴特森指出，随着收入水平赶上发达市场，发展中国家的经济增长率一般都会下降。中国目前的情况就是如此，但中国还有很长的路要走。
So how to view China’s slowdown and target reduction? Earlier this year, Rhodium Group analysts Daniel Rosen and Beibei Bao, who closely follow the country’s market, explained the causes of the country’s alarming slowdown. They pointed out that China’s growth is slowing because capital-intensive investment in heavy industry that creates few jobs, but outsized GDP, is slowing “while services, which use less capital and create more jobs, are growing.”
那么，如何看待中国的经济放缓以及中国政府下调增长目标呢？咨询公司鼎荣集团分析师丹尼尔•罗森和包蓓蓓一直密切跟踪中国市场。今年早些时候，他们解释了中国经济放缓幅度令人担心的原因。两位分析师指出，中国经济增速放慢是因为重工业领域的资本密集型投资正在减速，这种投资创造的就业机会较少，但对GDP促进极大，“而资金需求少，能创造更多就业机会的服务业正在发展壮大。”
Their conclusion? “A headline value around 7% for GDP growth is consistent with employment requirements, provided reform continues to open room for new activity, especially in the services sector.”
他们的结论是什么呢？“7%左右的GDP增长率与就业需求相符，前提是改革继续为新的经济活动开辟空间，特别是在服务行业。”
In that way, a lower target growth rate doesn’t look so alarming. But it depends on your perspective.
这么说来，下调经济增长目标看来并不那么令人紧张。不过，这还要取决于大家从哪个角度来看待这个问题。
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