9 startup ideas that were ahead of their time
Venture investors are fond of their truisms, to the point that the startup world is riddled with clichés. But few cut deeper than the one about timing: “The only thing worse than being wrong is being early.” It’s impossible to count the number of startups which failed because the world wasn’t ready for them yet. Since the dotcom bubble, many of the era’s biggest flops have been revived in different forms to become viable businesses.风险投资家非常爱说一些经验之谈，甚至整个创业界都流行着一些金科玉律。最经典的莫过于一个关于创业时机的经验之谈：“唯一比犯错更严重的就是过于超前。”因创业理念太超前而失败的例子简直数不胜数。不过自从“.com”泡沫破裂后，许多当年失败得一塌糊涂的点子，又以其它形式重新焕发了青春，成为生机勃勃的企业。
Today’s revivals have a few key things going for them this time around. For starters, it’s a matter of simple numbers: In 2000, only 43% of Americans were using the Internet. Today, 86% of the country is online and more than half of the population carries the Internet around in their pocket. The addressable audience for a Web startup is much larger.
这些创业理念之所以成功复苏，也因为它们现在具备了一些关键的要素。首先来了解一串简单的数字：2000年，美国只有43%的人使用互联网。如今美国网民人数已占总人口的86%，移动互联网用户更是达到美国总人口的一半以上。也就是说，网络创业公司的受众群体要比以往大得多。
Further, logistics networks from the likes of FedEx FDX -0.54% and UPS UPS -0.05% are more developed, more efficient, and more cost-effective than they were in the late 1990s. Lastly, thanks to cloud computing and open source software, the cost of starting up has shrunk from millions of dollars to hundreds of thousands or less. This lowers the stakes for starting a business, which means early-stage failures aren’t costing investors millions.
另外，联邦快递和UPS等物流网络也比90年代末更发达、更高效、价格更低。最后，随着云计算和开源软件的兴起，网络创业的成本从几百万美元减少到几千美元甚至更低。这大大降低了创业的风险，也就意味着早期阶段的创业失败不会导致投资人损失数百万美金。
Below, several good ideas which were simply ahead of their time.
以下是一些当年因过于超前而失败的例子。
Same-day delivery
当日送达
Uber has turned smartphones into remote controls for life. Press a button and just about anything you want will show up—booze, groceries, manicures, flowers, even weed. Amazon AMZN 0.87% and Google GOOG -1.23% now offer same-day delivery, with countless startup—including Uber—hot on their heels.
Uber已经把智能手机变成了生活的遥控器。只要按个按钮，你想要的几乎任何东西都可以送到家门——比如酒水、美甲、鲜花乃至大麻。亚马逊和谷歌现在也提供了当日送达服务，包括Uber在内的不计其数的创业公司紧随其后。
Same-day delivery was the premise of famous Web 1.0 blow-ups Kozmo.com and Webvan. Kozmo.com lost hundreds of millions in value in the dotcom crash; Webvan lost over a billion in investor money. They failed because they didn’t make money on their services. Today, Kozmo.com’s co-founder has revived the idea with MaxDelivery.com which has a small customer base of under 100,000, but has grown slowly and steadily since 2005 on its own profits, supporting a staff of 130. The recent influx of new startups offering anything you want on-demand proves that the idea wasn’t bad, but the timing was.
最早提供同日送达服务的，是Web 1.0时代的知名网站Kozmo.com和Webvan。但Kozmo.com在“.com”泡沫破裂时损失了数亿美元，Webvan更是让投资人的10多亿美金打了水漂。失败的原因在于，他们的服务不赚钱。Kozmo.com的联合创始人如今又通过MaxDelivery.com让这个理念起死回生，虽然MaxDelivery的用户群只有不到10万人，但从2005年至今，它却能依赖自身盈利实现缓慢而稳定的增长，并且能养活130名员工。如今有这么多创业公司在做当日送达服务，足以证明这个点子并不坏，只是当时时机未到。
Pet food delivery
宠物食品快递
The market for “pet parents,” who treat their dogs as well as children is a massive one, and that has only grown since the days of the dotcom bubble. But Pets.com, the most famous dotcom-era blow-up, was plagued by a simple logistical issue: In 1999, it didn’t make financial sense to ship giant bags of pet food across the country.
把自家的萌宠当亲人和孩子一样照顾的“狗奴”、“猫奴”大有人在。而且宠物一族的规模在“.com”时代之后仍在继续加大。Pets.com是“.com”时代一家非常出名的高估值网站，只可惜被一个简单的物流问题所累：1999年的时候，对于大部分消费者来说，从网上隔着大半个国家买狗粮在经济上并不划算。
Today, several companies have taken advantage of improvements from an improved national delivery network and revived this idea. Petflow.com expected $50 million in sales in 2014 and Bark&Co, a dog supply delivery service, claims it is a $100 million-per-year business. Even Petco has launched a repeat delivery service.
如今随着全国性的快递网络的发展，好几家公司又拾起了宠物食品快递的生意。Pletflow.com在2014年的营收预计达到5000万美元以上。一家名叫Bark&Co的狗粮公司声称，它每年的业务额达到了1亿美元。就连Petco公司也推出了一项重复快递服务。
Smartwatches
智能手表
The jury is still out on whether smartwatches will become as big a category as iPods or tablets, but they've certainly moved beyond novelty status. Analysts predict Apple AAPL -0.82% will sell at least 30 million Apple Watches when it goes on sale in April.
智能手表究竟能否像iPod或平板电脑一样，成为一种独领风骚的电子产品，现在依然没有定论，但它显然已经不像过去那样小众。据分析师预测，等到苹果手表四月上市后，它的销量至少将达到3000万部。
But Apple's smartwatch predecessors, Pebble and Samsung, weren't first to the smartwatch game. Microsoft MSFT -0.58% debuted a smartwatch prototype in 2004. Impressively, it preceded the smartphone. According to Techspot, these Microsoft smartwatches used FM radio signals to bring news, weather, and other information into the watches, which were made by Suunto, Fossil, Tissot, and Swatch. Somehow, it never caught on.
Pebble和三星此前也推出了各自的智能手表，但它们其实并非智能手表的先驱。微软早在2004年就发布了智能手表的原型产品，要知道那时候连智能手机都尚未问世。据Techspot报道，微软智能手表可以利用FM收音机信号将新闻、天气和其它信息带入手表中——当然微软的着力点只是在它的电子部分，它使用的手表仍然是松拓、Fossil、天梭和斯沃淇等瑞士知名表商的产品。不过不知什么缘故，微软智能手表一直没有流行开来。
Group buying sites
团购网站
In the late '90s, group buying sites were just as common as they were in the Groupon era. This includes the most well-known, Letsbuyit.com, as well as Mercata, which scrapped its IPO plans in 2001 and shut down. Others include Mobshop.com, ActBig, Zwirl.com, and C-Tribe.com. AOL AOL 1.36% and Yahoo YHOO 1.42% had plans to launch their own group-buying sites, too. None of those companies survived the dotcom crash—except Actbig.com, apparently.
早在90年代末，团购网站就在美国遍地开花，其数量一点也不亚于Groupon引领的“百团大战”时代。其中最出名的有Letsfuyit.com，在2001年放弃IPO计划，随后黯然倒闭的Mercata，以及Mobshop.com、ActBig、Zwirl.com、C-Tribe.com等大大小小的团购网站。美国在线和雅虎也曾计划推出自己的团购网站。不过在“.com”泡沫破裂后，除Actbig.com之外，上述网站无一生存。
In 2009, Groupon revived the concept. One could argue that the daily deals category remains a novelty, as I recently did in this article. My colleague Dan Primack recently counter-argued that Groupon is still a $5 billion company, which is not to be dismissed.
到了2009年，Groupon又让团购理念火了起来。很多人可能认为团购业务依然算是新生事物，就像我最近在一篇文章中指出的那样。我的同事丹•普利马克甚至称，Groupon仍然是一家价值50亿美元的公司。
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