Remember the customers carrying bundles of cash who queued up last September to buy as many iPhones as Apple would sell them?
还记得去年9月份iPhone6上市时，那些携带成捆的现金，排着长队，大肆抢购的顾客吗？
It could happen again.
这一幕有可能再次出现。
“We saw this with the iPhone,” said Asymco’s Horace Dediu in a podcast recorded Thursday. “We’ll see it in spades with the gold Apple Watch.”
调研公司Asymco的霍雷斯•德迪欧在上周四在其播客上表示：“既然iPhone发售时出现了这样的情景，我们肯定也能在黄金版Apple Watch发售时看到类似状况。”
Most analysts expect demand will be strongest for Apple’s aluminum and steel watches, which start at $349 and $549, respectively. Dediu believes Wall Street may be underestimating the intangible appeal of a $10,000 gold watch. Especially one given as a gift. Especially in China, with its rich tradition of over-the-top gift giving.
大多数分析师预计，铝金属和不锈钢表壳的Apple Watch需求最大，它们的起售价分别为349美元和549美元。不过德迪欧认为，华尔街可能低估了1万美元黄金版Apple Watch的无形魅力，尤其是送礼传统悠久的中国。
The gold watch has something else going for it. Unlike the value of a Rolex, say, which can range from a few thousand dollars to tens of thousands, the price of the Apple Watch in each of its global markets is fixed; it’s listed on the website.
黄金版Apple Watch还有其他玄机。不像劳力士（Rolex）等其他手表的价格从几千美元到几万美元不等，Apple Watch在全球市场都采用固定价格，其官网已经完全公布。
“It’s like currency,” says Dediu. Factor in local taxes, and you can calculate with some precision what he calls the “global arbitrage opportunities.”
德迪欧表示：“这就像货币一样。”考虑到各国税率不同，你可以较为精确地计算出他所说的“全球套利机会”。
For example, the entry level gold watch — 38mm 18-Karat Rose Gold with a white sport band — retails in the U.S. for $10.000. The same watch is listed on Apple’s Chinese website for RMB 74,800 ($12,045). Beijing imposes a 17% value added tax. Hong Kong does not.
比如说，黄金版Apple Watch的入门款——38毫米18K玫瑰金表壳搭配白色运动型表带在美国的零售价为1万美元。而中国网站上的同款手表售价为7.48万人民币（合12,045美元）。中国大陆对它征收了17%的增值税，不过香港地区没有。
“If someone smuggles one of these into China,” says Dediu, “they’ll pay for their flight ticket and then some.”
德迪欧说：“如果有人把这块手表从美国走私到中国，完全可以赚回他的往返机票钱，还有盈余。”
He reports that in Boston there were still queues for the iPhone 6 Plus in January, almost five months after it launched. “They’re mostly Chinese,” he says. “They’re doing it as a business.”
德迪欧说，直到今年1月，在iPhone 6 Plus发布近5个月之后，波士顿仍然有顾客在排队购买这款手机。他说：“其中主要以中国人居多，他们把它当生意来做。”
It can be a rough business, as a documentary film shot outside Apple Stores in New York City last September demonstrated. It might be even rougher in April, when buyers could be carrying bundles of cash in units of $10,000.
正如去年九月在苹果商店外拍摄的一部纪录片所述，这门生意可能不太好做，到4月时甚至会更难，因为那时候买家需要以1万美元为单位来携带现金。
That’s cash that will go almost directly to Apple’s bottom line. Dediu estimates that the margin on a $10,000 gold watch could be as high as 90%.
这部分现金几乎会直接成为苹果公司的利润。德迪欧估计，1万美元的黄金版Apple Watch利润高达90%。
“I wouldn’t be surprised if in the first few months the demand for gold is far, far higher than we imagined,” he says. “They’ll just be out of stock, permanently.”
他说：“如果在头几个月，黄金版Apple Watch的需求远超我们的预计，我并不会感到吃惊。它们会一直保持脱销状态。”
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