It is not just President Barack Obama’s trade agenda that hangs in the balance. The Senate’s rebuff to his request for a vote on the fast-track negotiating authority also casts doubt on his “pivot to Asia”. The White House downplayed the defeat as a “procedural snafu”. It insists common sense will prevail. But the goal of enacting Trade Promotion Authority — an essential step to wrapping up both the Pacific and transatlantic deals — is starting to look arduous.
前途未卜的不仅仅是美国总统巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的贸易议程。美国参议院拒绝奥巴马就“快车道”(fast-track)谈判授权举行投票的请求，也给他的“重返亚洲”战略罩上疑云。白宫将此次挫折淡化为“程序混乱”。白宫坚称，常识将会占据上风。但获得“贸易促进授权”(TPA)是缔结跨太平洋和跨大西洋协定的关键一步，现在看起来实现这个目标有些困难。
The Senate was supposed to be the easy part. Moreover, Mr Obama’s toughest opponents are within his own party — a new challenge after years of grappling with reflex Republican obstructionism. What remains of his trade agenda will depend on persuading Democrats to climb down and keeping Republicans onside. It also poses a test of America’s authority in an era of geopolitical rivalry. China does not suffer from procedural mishaps. Mr Obama must retrieve the initiative.
美国参议院本来应该不是问题。此外，奥巴马最难缠的反对者是在本党内部——在多年疲于应对共和党反射性的否决之后，这是一个新的挑战。他的贸易议程前途如何将取决于能否说服民主党做出让步，并保持共和党的支持。这也让美国在地缘政治对抗时代的权威经受考验。中国没有出现程序混乱。奥巴马必须恢复主动。
Hillary Clinton’s ambivalence is one measure of how tough that will be. As secretary of state, Mrs Clinton described the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as the “gold standard” of global trade rules. As the Democratic frontrunner to replace Mr Obama, she has stayed ominously silent on the deal. Her stance owes much to political calculation. Mr Obama is opposed by the entire spectrum of Democratic interest groups — from trade unions to environmentalists and consumer organisations.
希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的矛盾态度表明这将是多么的艰难。希拉里曾在任国务卿时将12国参与的《跨太平洋伙伴关系》(Trans-Pacific Partnership，简称TPP)描述为全球贸易规则的“黄金标准”。作为有望取代奥巴马的民主党总统竞选人，她又对该协定保持沉默，这是一个不祥的迹象。她的立场在很大程度上是出于政治上的考量。奥巴马受到民主党所有利益集团的反对——从工会到环保主义者和消费者团体等。
The president may have erred in presenting it as a personal fight with Elizabeth Warren, the populist senator from Massachusetts. Mrs Warren has made defeat of the TPA into her own cause. Dismissing her as misinformed — and opponents in general as “calcified” — Mr Obama has only encouraged other Democrats to fall in line with her. Their view is that TPP will lower US labour and environmental standards. They are wrong. Mr Obama needs to do a better job of explaining why.
奥巴马可能犯了一个错，那就是表现得好像这是他与来自马萨诸塞州的平民主义参议员伊丽莎白•沃伦(Elizabeth Warren)的个人争斗。沃伦已经将挫败“贸易促进授权”当作自己的事业。奥巴马抨击沃伦受到了误导，并认为反对者整体“钙化”，结果只会促使其他民主党人赞同沃伦的观点。他们认为，TPP将会降低美国劳工和环境标准。他们是错误的，奥巴马需要更好地解释原因何在。
He must also set out how the Pacific deal would differ from the North American Free Trade Agreement, which was passed during Bill Clinton’s administration. Nafta has become a touchstone on the US left for all that is wrong with free trade. It was sold as a deal that would generate millions of US jobs. It fell far short.
他还必须解释TPP与《北美自由贸易协定》(North American Free Trade Agreement)如何不同，后者在比尔•克林顿(Bill Clinton)政府时期通过。美国左翼往往拿《北美自由贸易协定》来说明自由贸易的坏处。该协定曾被兜售为将会为美国创造数百万就业岗位，结果却远未有那么多。
The left sees TPP as another “giant sucking sound” for corporate offshoring. This is in spite of the fact that China is not a part of TPP. The left says never again. Even moderate Democrats say they will only support a deal if it includes a provision to punish China for manipulating its currency. That would kill any chance of a Pacific agreement and would rightly invite Mr Obama’s veto.
美国左翼认为TPP是企业活动外流到海外发出的又一个“巨大的吸吮声”，这还是在中国没有参与TPP的情况下。左翼说不能再这样了。甚至温和的民主党人也表示，只有协定包含惩罚中国操纵人民币汇率的条款，他们才会支持协定。这将会扼杀签署跨太平洋协定的可能性，也无疑会招致奥巴马的否决。
Mr Obama must also be careful not to oversell the economic benefits of TPP. At the margins it will create jobs and open up Japan, Vietnam and other markets to US exports and investment. Nor should it be seen as a geopolitical counter to a China that is increasingly willing to make up its own rules and set up its own clubs. It is vital for the US to make clear that TPP will be open to all, including Beijing. Mr Obama should be careful to avoid a game of zero-sum rivalry with the Chinese.
奥巴马还必须保持谨慎，不要过度夸大TPP的经济益处。它至少会创造就业并为美国的出口和投资打开日本、越南和其他市场。它也不应被视为在地缘政治上对抗中国，后者日益有意制定自己的规则和创建自己的俱乐部。至关重要的是，美国应明确表示，TPP将会向包括中国在内的所有国家开放。奥巴马应该小心避免与中国进入零和对抗。
Mr Obama’s challenge is novel. He must rely on Republican support to salvage the centrepiece of his economic diplomacy. The clock is against him. America’s partners know there is no chance that Congress will ratify a trade agreement in 2016, which is a presidential election year. TPA must be passed within the next few weeks if a deal is to be concluded and enacted before the end of 2015. Capitol Hill’s obstacles must be overcome. America’s global credibility is at stake.
奥巴马面临的挑战很奇特。他必须依靠共和党的支持来挽救其经济外交的核心议程。奥巴马必须争分夺秒。美国的合作伙伴知道，美国国会不可能在举行总统大选的2016年批准贸易协定。如果要在2015年底前缔结并通过协定，就必须在未来数周内获得“贸易促进授权”。必须克服国会山的障碍。美国的全球信誉正经受考验。
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