As a former prime minister of Australia, I understand something of the political costs leaders must bear in aiming to reconcile the long-term interests of the planet with short-term national interests.
作为澳大利亚前总理，我深知要调和地球的长期利益和短期的国家利益之间的冲突，领导人必须付出某种政治代价。
After attending the 2009 Copenhagen summit on climate change, I was attacked back home for either doing too much or too little in trying to bring about a binding global agreement.
在参加了2009年的哥本哈根气候变化峰会之后，我在国内受到了攻击，因为人们觉得我在努力促成一份有约束力的全球协议时，做得太多或太少。
We all failed at Copenhagen, though not for want of effort from many of us. The United Nations conference in Paris this December is the next opportunity for leaders of the world’s biggest economies to show real leadership in the slow-motion drama that is anthropogenic climate change.
我们在哥本哈根都是输家，但这不是因为我们许多人缺乏行动。今年12月在巴黎召开的联合国气候大会，为世界最大经济体的领导人提供了又一次机会，让他们可以在人为气候变化的慢动作剧目中，展示真正的领导力。
The United States and China, the world’s biggest polluters, began tackling climate change together when they announced an agreement last November to curb carbon emissions. The United States promised to double the speed at which it will reduce carbon emissions, aiming for a 26-to-28 percent reduction by 2025 from 2005 levels, while China pledged to peak emissions by around 2030.
世界上最大的两个污染排放国——美国和中国——已经开始携手应对气候变化问题，并于去年11月宣布了一份限制碳排放的协议。美国承诺把降低碳排放的步伐加快一倍，打算到2025年使碳排放水平比2005年减少26%至28%，而中国则承诺在2030年左右使碳排放达到峰值。
Meanwhile, India and China issued a joint statement on climate change earlier this month that included a pledge to submit plans on their own carbon targets before the Paris conference.
与此同时，印度和中国本月早些时候发表了一份有关气候变化的联合声明，其中包括在巴黎会议之前提交它们自己的碳排放目标的承诺。
Five years ago, such joint announcements by the United States, China and India were seen as inconceivable. Now climate science makes them unavoidable.
五年前，美国、中国和印度达成的这些联合声明会令人难以置信。如今，气候科学的现实让它们别无选择。
Between 1850 and 2012, the United States and Europe produced 45 percent of greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere, compared to 18 percent from China and India, according to the nonprofit organization Climate Analytics. Based on current practices, it is projected that by 2020, China alone will produce 24 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, India 7 percent, the United States 13 percent and the European Union 8 percent. Climate change action by China and India is now critical.
根据非营利组织气候分析(Climate Analytics)的数据，1850到2012年，美国和欧洲制造了目前大气中45%的温室气体，相比之下，中国和印度产生的温室气体占了18%。根据目前的情况，预计到2020年，单是中国就将产生24%的全球温室气体排放，印度7%，美国13%，欧盟国家8%。中国和印度的气候变化行动如今至关重要。
But China and India fear that radical action on greenhouse gas emissions will significantly reduce economic growth in a time when poverty reduction remains a national priority. We in the West cannot simply wave this problem away as if it is not our concern as well.
不过，中国和印度担心，在减贫仍然是国家首要任务的当下，温室气体排放方面的激进行动将使经济增速大大放缓。我们西方国家不能对这个问题撒手不管，因为这也是我们的担忧。
Still, India and China will face even greater problems if carbon emissions continue to increase.
而且，如果碳排放继续增长的话，印度和中国将面临更加严峻的问题。
India will be one of the states hardest hit by climate change, with increased coastal flooding and melting Himalayan glaciers. Rising global temperatures would make water security an even greater problem in India-Pakistan relations. William Cline, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, has estimated that a modest increase in average global temperatures would cut agricultural output in India by 38 percent.
随着沿海地区洪灾的增多，以及喜马拉雅冰川不断融化，印度将成为受气候变化影响最严重的国家之一。不断上升的全球气温将使水安全成为印巴关系中更加严峻的问题。华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的高级研究员威廉·克莱恩(William R. Cline) 估计，全球平均气温的小幅上升会使印度的农业产出下降38%。
The stakes are as great for China. Earlier this year, the head of China’s national weather service warned that climate change would have “huge impacts” on the country, including reduced crop yields, ecological harm and unstable river flows. A 2011 government report anticipated a 5-to-20 percent drop in grain output resulting from climate change by 2050. Never mind the crisis the Chinese leadership already faces from unsustainable levels of air pollution in the country’s major cities.
中国同样利益攸关。今年早些时候，中国国家气象局负责人警告称，气候变化对国家“影响巨大”，会导致粮食产量下降，生态退化，以及河流径流量不稳定。2011年的一份政府报告预计，到2050年，气候变化导致的粮食减产将达到5%到20%。除此之外，中国领导层还面临着大城市不可持续的空气污染水平所带来的危机。
While the United States’ total emissions are now considerably less than China’s, America’s per-capita emissions are three times that of China and 10 times India’s. If the United States wants to persuade China and India to shift to a low-carbon development path, it must make a determined effort to reduce the carbon intensity of its own economy by becoming more energy efficient and switching to low-carbon energy sources. Shale gas is one part of this equation.
尽管美国的总排放量目前远远低于中国，人均排放量却是中国的3倍、印度的10倍。如果美国想要说服中国和印度改走低碳发展道路，就必须通过提高能效和转而使用低碳能源，坚决降低自身经济的碳排放强度。页岩气是这个方程式的一部分。
Success in Paris this December will require a three-part approach.
今年12月的巴黎大会要想取得成功，需要一个具有三个组成部分的对策。
First, the United States and China must rapidly increase collaboration on climate change both within and beyond the framework of the Paris conference. This means concerted action from environmental and energy regulators, and effective pricing for the heaviest polluters to purchase carbon permits and for what consumers pay for energy. The sort of large-scale investments needed in renewable energy, less carbon-intensive energy, energy efficiency and technological innovation will only happen if there are significant and sustained price and regulatory signals from government, coupled with innovations in the market. China’s air pollution crisis should be a core focus of bilateral policy, regulatory and technological effort — not least because it affects us all.
首先，美国和中国必须迅速扩大在气候变化问题上的合作，在巴黎会议的框架内外都是如此。这意味着环境和能源监管机构的协同行动，以及针对最严重污染者购买碳排放许可、消费者购买能源的有效定价机制。只有政府释放重要、持续的价格和监管信号，加上市场的创新，可再生能源、碳排放量较低的能源、能效和技术创新所需的大规模投资才会出现。中国的空气污染危机应该是双边政策、监管和技术行动的核心焦点——其中的一个重要原因是，它与我们每一个人都有关。
Second, effective trilateral collaboration between the United States, China and India is critical. Although India has been a smaller emitter in relative terms until now, India will pass China’s population in the next decade, and it has barely begun its own industrial revolution. Delhi already has air pollution levels comparable to Beijing. The same type of climate change collaboration on regulation, pricing, technology and investment is needed in this triangular relationship. In this context, we cannot ignore the fact that coal, absent a quantum technological shift, is likely to remain the major fuel for energy generation in China and India through to mid-century. Investment must continue to focus on clean-coal technologies and shale-gas conversion.
第二，美国、中国和印度的有效三方合作至关重要。尽管印度迄今为止的碳排放量一直相对较少，印度人口将在未来10年超过中国，而且它基本上还没有开始自己的工业革命。德里的空气污染水平已经与北京不相上下。这个三角关系必须在监管、定价、技术和投资等领域开展同样类型的气候变化合作。在此背景下，我们不能忽视的一个事实是，如果没有巨大的技术变革，煤炭直到本世纪中叶都将会是中国和印度能源生产的主要燃料。投资的重点必须继续放在清洁煤炭技术和页岩气转换上。
Third, any climate change agreement in Paris must ensure that countries actually implement the emissions cuts they commit to. The final accord must agree to a regular review mechanism, full transparency of data and an ability to supplement the Paris agreement with further climate-change action as necessary. Much of the world seems oblivious to international treaty law, but it does respond to concrete environmental action based on that law.
第三，在巴黎达成的任何气候变化协议，都必须确保各国兑现其减排承诺。最终的协议必须包括经常性的审核机制、充分的数据透明度，以及通过更多必要的气候变化行动为巴黎协议提供补充的能力。世界上的很多国家似乎忘记了国际公约法的存在，但他们一定会响应基于这部法律的具体的环境行动。
Forging an agreement in Paris will take bold leadership. The people of the world, particularly the young, now look increasingly to the leaders of these great powers to protect our planet before it’s too late for us all.
在巴黎达成协议将需要相关方面大胆地运用自己的领导力。全世界的人们现在越来越指望大国领导人保护我们的地球，年轻人尤其如此，以免我们所有人都追悔莫及。
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