People pay plenty of money for consulting giants to help them figure out which technology trends are fads and which will stick. You could go that route, or get the same thing from the McKinsey Global Institute’s in-house think-tank for the cost of a new book. No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends, was written by McKinsey directors Richard Dobbs, James Manyika, and Jonathan Woetzel, and offers insight into which developments will have the greatest impact on the business world in coming decades. Below, we’re recapping their list of the “Disruptive Dozen”—the technologies the group believes have the greatest potential to remake today’s business landscape.
许多人愿意花一大笔钱，请咨询专家预测未来的科技趋势。你可以这样做，也可以用一本新书的价格，从麦肯锡全球研究所的内部智库得到同样的预测。这本书名为《大颠覆：全球四大力量正在打破所有的趋势》，作者为麦肯锡董事理查德·多布斯、詹姆斯·马尼卡和华强森。这本书将帮助你深入了解未来几十年对商业世界影响最大的科技发展趋势。我们在下文列出了他们给出的“12个最具颠覆性的科技趋势”。作者们相信，这些科技最有潜力改变当今的商业图景。
Energy storage
储能技术
The book's authors predict that the price of lithium-ion battery packs could fall by a third in the next 10 years, which will have a big impact on not only electric cars, but renewable energy storage. There will be major repercussions for the transportation, power generation, and the oil and gas industries as batteries grow cheaper and more efficient.
本书的作者们预测，未来十年，锂离子电池组的成本将降低三分之一，这一改变不仅对电动车领域至关重要，也与可再生能源存储技术的发展息息相关。同时，随着电池价格日益低廉和电池效率的提高，运输、发电和石油天然气行业也将受到重大影响。
Genomics
基因组学
As super computers make the enormously complicated process of genetic analysis much simpler, the authors foresee a world in which “genomic-based diagnoses and treatments will extend patients’ lives by between six months and two years in 2025." Sequencing systems could eventually become so commonplace that doctors will have them on their desktops.
超级计算机使极其复杂的基因分析程序变得更加简单。本书的作者预测，“在2025年，利用基因组技术进行诊断和治疗，将使患者寿命延长六个月至两年。”基因测序系统将会变得非常普遍，医生在电脑上便可以使用这一系统。
Advanced materials
高级材料学
The ability to manipulate existing materials on a molecular level has already enabled advances in products like sunglasses, bike frames, and medical equipment. Scientists have greater control than ever over nanomaterials in a variety of substances, and their understanding is growing. Health concerns recently prompted Dunkin' Donuts to remove nanomaterials from their food. But certain advanced nanomaterials show promise for improving health, and even treating cancer. Coming soon: materials that are self-healing, self-cleaning, and that remember their original shape even if they’re bent.
在分子层面操纵现有材料的能力，已经带来了太阳镜、自行车架和医疗设备等产品的进步。未来，科学家将可以更好地控制各种物质的纳米材料，对纳米技术将有更深入的理解。出于对健康问题的担忧，唐恩都乐公司决定将纳米材料从其食物中剔除。但部分先进的纳米材料，很有希望改善健康状况甚至治疗癌症。不久的将来，材料将具有自愈、自洁能力，并且将拥有记忆，无论被如何弯曲，它们都能够恢复到最初的形状。
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